5 hours ago
AI might better predict Trump’s foreign policy
A method marked the madness and can be decoded.
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1 day ago
Three safe bets on the 47th president’s foreign policy
Whatever the outcome of the US election, states will remain self-interested, and material power will reign supreme. -
4 Sep 2024
Can the US and China avoid a catastrophic clash?
Jake Sullivan’s trip to Beijing was about managing tension and that’s the best that can be hoped for. -
2 Sep 2024
Antimony: The hidden metal fuelling global competition
China’s latest critical mineral restrictions have caught attention – but mooted solutions might not deliver. -
29 Aug 2024
US shifts nuclear focus to counter China’s growing arsenal
Beijing’s nuclear modernisation means its intentions and commitments to non-proliferation will continue to be questioned. -
29 Aug 2024
Harris vs Trump, and the foreign policy shake-up ahead
From AUKUS and the South China Sea, to Taiwan and Ukraine, Canberra and other allies will need creative diplomacy in their kit bag after November's election. -
16 Aug 2024
Farewell Fumio Kishida – regional foundations are stronger for your legacy
Too much focus on personality politics can obscure the enduring common interests between countries. -
7 Aug 2024
Looking back at the Biden administration’s Pacific strategy
Big promises haven’t always been backed up by delivery. But the main question is about enduring attention. -
30 Jul 2024
Made in the USA: America’s gambit to reclaim industrial primacy
Dominance in next-generation industry relies on people and partnerships to short-circuit China’s leading edge. -
26 Jul 2024
Martin Indyk, peacemaker
A scholar, a statesman, and a relentless policy entrepreneur. Above all, he was committed to a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute. -
26 Jul 2024
Remembering Martin Indyk, an American diplomat with Australian sensibilities
“Few Australians have had such a large impact on the world, and for good”, said Lowy Institute Chairman Sir Frank Lowy. -
26 Jul 2024
Deadpool & Wolverine can rescue America from Trump
A superhero film to save a country in danger. -
24 Jul 2024
Don’t expect Trump 2.0 to be so tough on China
Past behaviour is the best guide to future conduct. -
23 Jul 2024
America’s election: It’s not foreign policy, stupid
For all the noise of the campaign, the next few months will be a quiet time in America’s approach to international affairs. -
22 Jul 2024
Bye Biden
The rollercoaster quality of politics and political coverage seems to ensure the head-jerks will continue. -
22 Jul 2024
Japan, South Korea and United States: Let’s hope for a robust, lasting pact
The new framework for security cooperation will have important consequences for the region – if it survives domestic politics among the partners. -
17 Jul 2024
Has Biden “checkmated” China?
The President is rightly proud of having bolstered US alliances. But claims of beating China are overreach. -
15 Jul 2024
Trump attack will bolster his dark vision of America
For a candidate that has themselves incited violence while playing the victim, Trump now clearly is the victim. -
14 Jul 2024
Immediate questions after the attack on Trump
Fairly or not, blame for political violence will now be levelled by both sides. -
12 Jul 2024
Is Biden time out of time?
The president is trying to run down the clock on critics, only the fate of US power looms as a question in the American capital, too. -
10 Jul 2024
Why Democrats suddenly have “buyer’s remorse” with Biden
The public can see Biden’s weaknesses, making his strategy-in-contrast far less persuasive this time around. -
9 Jul 2024
Biden’s candidacy was risky before the debate – and Democrats chose him anyway
And it will be no small thing to override a sense of personal loyalty and deep affection to give up on a friend. -
2 Jul 2024
Putin goes to Pyongyang: Should we be worried?
The renewed marriage of convenience between Russia and North Korea has global implications. -
28 Jun 2024
So, Trump took out the debate. What if Biden wins the election?
What Trump says amounts to an imagined future, whereas Biden’s comments determine policy in the here and now. -
28 Jun 2024
A tale of high stakes and nerves centre on the White House
Getting the balance right in the amount of information to provide the US President. -
27 Jun 2024
Julian Assange: Some consular cases are more equal than others
It’s hard to think of a case that has consumed more official hours and dollars. -
27 Jun 2024
Assange’s guilty plea “crucial” for many in US intelligence community: James Clapper, former DNI
Justice has been served and an irritant in US relations with Australia resolved. -
25 Jun 2024
America’s about–face on Assange allows Albanese to claim a win
Managing different interests between allies isn’t easy. -
25 Jun 2024
Tariffs, data security and global collaboration: Navigating the geopolitics of electric vehicles
Protectionism isn’t going to help with meeting global climate ambitions. -
25 Jun 2024
Ten reasons why Trump will support AUKUS
AUKUS will survive regardless of who wins the presidential election in November. -
21 Jun 2024
Dictator on Day One? Trump’s grand plans for the federal bureaucracy
The aim to gut the US civil service and install political appointees could happen. But not overnight. -
14 Jun 2024
Back to the future for the US State Department?
Biden’s repair job after Trump turmoil is far from complete. -
7 Jun 2024
Malcolm Turnbull makes a call to global leaders with advice on Trump
Memories of an infamous falling-out have a former PM offering lessons. -
5 Jun 2024
The China alibi
A geopolitical contest between the United States and China should not stop Australians assessing their own economic interests. -
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24 May 2024
The “Squad” is a welcome spin-off, but the Quad is the main game
India might not perfectly align with its partners in the minilateral group but its Indo-Pacific heft is much greater than that of the Philippines. -
22 May 2024
Biden’s new Antarctic statement holds lessons for Australia
Different views of sovereignty on the continent shouldn’t obscure the many shared goals. -
21 May 2024
Whether EVs or solar panels, protectionism has the same distorting effect
Biden is playing election politics with tariffs on China’s electric cars, while Albanese’s solar subsidy plans might end up costing Australia. -
20 May 2024
The macroeconomic limit of American exceptionalism
There are hard rules to the forces driving the current account deficit, no matter how it is calculated. -
9 May 2024
In the story of an assassination plot, India decides to shoot the messenger
Getting to the source of information can leave reporters open to criticism. -
9 May 2024
“Squad” goals: Consolidating the new quadrilateral partnership
With China flexing its muscle in the South China Sea, a revised grouping that includes the Philippines strikes a new balance. -
24 Apr 2024
FONOPs send a message – but they don’t speak for themselves
Making the case for rules can dispel a common misunderstanding that promoting freedom on the seas is about power. -
17 Apr 2024
Telling tales about “Civil War”
Politics isn’t the only strange omission from what is undoubtedly a captivating and relentless movie spectacle. -
17 Apr 2024
Why China remains unlikely to invade Taiwan
Xi Jinping didn't reach the top of Chinese politics by gambling. -
15 Apr 2024
Is South Korea’s Indo‑Pacific Strategy a diplomatic lame duck?
After President Yoon’s election defeat, a change in foreign policy is unlikely, but momentum will vanish. -
8 Apr 2024
Beyond Biden vs Trump: The other US elections that matter
In US foreign policy, the Congress can pack a punch against the president, and that reverberates all the way to Australia. -
5 Apr 2024
What should Australia be doing about the South China Sea?
While Australia’s interests are clear, its contribution is ambiguous. -
2 Apr 2024
A wave of US trilaterals sends a clear message to China
Revamped security groupings led by Washington, including with Manila and Tokyo, are the new normal. -
28 Mar 2024
Are Beijing and Washington testing the dark forest hypothesis?
A TV spin-off may explain why China and the US have chosen not to shoot first and ask questions later. -
27 Mar 2024
China and the great global AI governance divide
Beijing already has at its disposal multiple means to shape how the world approaches this technological revolution.